Week 2 NFL Picks

NFL Season Record

3-1-1 +1U

My dumbass didn’t know how to stay away from the Thursday night game and I lost 2U on Baltimore at -1.5 against my better judgment. The Broncos pushed last weekend but otherwise everything else covered. That’s a lovely way to start the season! Need a book? Come on down and play with me at Bovada!

WEEK 2 NFL PICKS

LA Chargers @ BUF -7.5 2U – Bought this early in the week because Buffalo shit the bed so badly against Baltimore in the opener I didn’t think there’d be any way they’d be able to cover against a competitive Chargers team. Crybaby Phillip Rivers should stomp the shit out of the Bills, this is barely worth analyzing at a statistical level. It looks like the Bills are going to start Josh Allen, the first-rounder out of Wyoming, which should at least make for a more interesting game than the massacre last Sunday. Chargers cover, I’m guessing by 10.

OAK @ Denver Broncos -6 2U – Homer betting again. Oakland has no offensive weapons, collapsed in the 2nd half Sunday against the Rams, and Denver looks great against the run which should render an aging Marshawn Lynch totally irrelevant. I expect a steadier outing from Keenum, who I don’t blame at all for 2/3 interceptions in the opener against Seattle, and I expect Sanders to open up again and Phillip Lindsay to shred in front of the home crowd. The spread has gone up a half point on most books, but I still think that has a lot of value depending on the juice.

New England Patriots @ JAX -1.5 1.5U – I don’t know what planet we’re on. I stayed away from NE last weekend and they covered the spread by a half point, so I don’t regret that decision, however this line seems unreasonably low against a Jaguars team that struggled to contain the abysmal New York Giants last weekend. Bortles I think is starting out a little rattled being so focused on after last season, and although I don’t think it will be more than a 7 point game, I’m legitimately shocked that even a little neutered, a BB/Tom Brady Pats is this undervalued. Slam it.

MNF looks kind of sketchy, the Seahawks looked better than I thought in Denver but the Bears covered against the comeback Packers. If it stays at -3.5 through tomorrow I might jump on it, especially if the juice stays even for Chicago. I’m also hammering the Yankees against Toronto through this whole three-game series, at least 1U each. I’m running about even on MLB.

NFL Week 1 Picks

For the last couple of years, in addition to playing fantasy football for a little scratch among friends, I’ve thrown some money around betting spreads/futures on the NFL and gradually expanded to homer baseball wagers, the World Cup and a little on fights I’m interested in. During the 2018 NFL season on Saturdays (or Wednesday depending if I’m into the TNF game) I’ll be having a little Degenerate Gambler’s Column where I show you my picks and you can tail or fade at your own risk. If you’re not familiar with the unit betting concept, 1 unit (1U) is generally between 1-10% of your bankroll. If you want to bet but don’t have an online book, I can’t say enough nice things about Bovada and you get some nice bonuses if you use my referral code. Without further ado, here’s my picks for NFL Week 1, along with my logic behind them.

NFL Week 1 Picks

NFL Season Record: 0-0

Minnesota Vikings -6.5 1U – At home against the 49ers and I think Kirk Cousins has something to prove. The Vikings are a little banged up or else I think this line would be substantially higher. Even seeing Jimmy G go on a tear at the end of last year, I don’t see the weapons that can take on a formidable Minnesota. The Elo has this for the Vikings at -8, so I think a -6.5 is a bargain.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1U – A road favorite but playing in a house divided, JAX has arguably one of the best defenses in the league and should keep this pretty low scoring against the Giants. It’s going to be tight and competitive in regards to covering, but the Jaguar offense is being a little underestimated as an anemic unit and against a dysfunctional Giants team, I think this might be easier than how murky it looks.

Denver Broncos -3 1.5U – Kind of a homer bet, but an opener at Mile High is like getting balls off the table. Seattle is a straight up shell of itself, losing so much veteran talent in the offseason that I can’t believe the juice is as good as it is and that there’s been little-to-no line movement since I bought this last week. I wish I got it at -2.5, but I think the Donkeys are going to dominate.

Los Angeles Rams -4.5 1U – Fade the Gruden Raiders all day long, doesn’t matter if they’re at home. It’s a coach that hasn’t been in the league for fifteen years on a team with more internal strife and drama than probably any other team in the league. The Rams franchise turnaround since moving to LA is insane.

I’m staying away from the Pats until some of their injury problems work themselves out. Brady is sorely lacking targets against a Houston team with offensive and defensive assets that I think are going to trouble them with -6.5 points to cover. I also put 1U on Colorado +4 against Nebraska just for rivalry funsies, and with the weather apparently looking terrible for the Steelers v. Browns, it might be a little interesting to throw money on the under, although the books are already adjusting downwards from a o/u of 44 so it might be too late. Lots of tight lines opening week, and obvious stuff like Detroit -7 against the Jets or the Packers -7.5 against Chicago seems a little trappy to me. A virtual pick ’em in Miami, with the Titans -1 is something else I’m staying away from, despite some confidence Tennessee walks away with it handily.

Good luck!

Aaron Boone Suspended for Today’s Game

Friday night, Aaron Boone was ejected as the Yankees were being no-hit by the Tigers for arguing balls and strikes. Nic Lentz, a substitute homeplate umpire, had established a low strike zone early in the game but it was evidently not very consistent between Detroit and New York hitters. Jawing from the dugout, Boone was thrown out with very little hesitation by Lentz, and enraged, Boone stormed out from the dugout where he gave Lentz a quick strike zone lesson from behind the plate and got in his face. Apparently, hat bill contact is an offense worth suspending for in the MLB. If you haven’t seen the ejection and subsequent exchange, it’s something to behold from a manager that has been criticized by Yankee faithful as being a little too mild-mannered and working too close to a sabermetrics book in his debut season as the New York skipper.

Yankees like a pugilist at the helm (see: Martin, Billy; Girardi, Joe) and you can’t argue with results. In what felt like blatant retaliation, the Yanks came up in the next inning to hit three homeruns after being no-hit for 5 innings, taking the lead 4-3. I had been in the shower at the time, but I had the game turned up and heard each of Michael Kay’s calls. My reaction could only be described as “Ray Liotta in the shower after the airport heist in Goodfellas” while I slammed my hand on the tile and yelled “WIN IT FOR BOONIE!” enough times to probably disturb my neighbors. New York went on to win the game 7-5 in a goddamn late-season nailbiter for the ages.

Today’s game against the Tigers hopefully keeps the momentum going after the reunification of a sorely missed Gary Sanchez and debut of Aaron McClutchen in a 2-1 victory yesterday. I took the Yanks at a -1.5 spread on -135 juice for 1.5 Units this afternoon, tail or fade at your own risk. I think Lance Lynn is due a good outing today on the mound, the lineup is tightening back up as something a little more threatening, and although Stanton is having a much-needed day off, the outfield has enough depth both defensively and at bat to give him the rest. You can find me in the reddit Game Day Thread, where I would please urge the board to stop the Chicken Little posting on every piece of the other team’s offense or Yankee fielding miscue. It’s been a rough but ultimately successful season and I think any fan should be optimistic about the playoffs, especially if this team can get and stay healthy. I miss Aaron Judge and Sir Didi so much. Nic Lentz is a baby and Reagan should’ve busted up the Umpire’s Union.