Week 5 NFL Picks

NFL Record 7-8-3 -1.5U

Parlay Record 0-2 -2U

Scraping back! Pats covered on Thursday against Indy, Browns pushed, Broncos covered. My week was better, basically broke even. Let’s see if we can make some money this week. Unit bets are a little lower to play it safe, not that it matters to you.

WEEK 5 NFL PICKS

Denver Broncos @ NYJ -1 1U – This opened up at +2.5 for Denver, which I placed for a friend as a side bet after losing fantasy last week (KAMERAAAA!!!!), and I tailed it at -1 for Denver after the line movement during the week. I’m not really sure why even on the road, the Broncos weren’t heavy favorites against Bradford. There’s an understanding that Denver plays poorly on the east coast, but it’s the fucking New York Jets. As a Bronco homer, I want to say Keenum is overpaid and Vance Joseph’s days are numbered as head coach. They need to dispatch the Jets handily to buy some time on decisions related to those conclusions and after blowing a ten point lead and ruining the game winning play against KC, desperately need this road win to remain remotely optimistic about the rest of the season.

GB @ Detroit Lions +1 1U – I still don’t trust that Rodgers knee, even after last week’s domination against the abysmal Bills, and Detroit is at home. GB has the 7th ranked pass defense, which I expect the Lions to light up being that they’re not great on the rush. I like Tate and Marvin Jones Jr is still a WR people sleep on. This is the game I feel like is most likely not going my way, but I have some confidence in Stafford and crew wanting to prove a point in what’s being framed as a struggle this season between coach and team. Smart bet, Coops, bet on the team with a lot of internal strife.

OAK @ Los Angeles Chargers -5 1U – Fade the fucking Raiders all season. Vegas called in a favor in overtime last week against Mayfield and the Browns. That call was bullshit and everybody knows it. While a LA game for either the Rams or the Chargers is still basically a Raider home game, and LAC fucked me by not covering a foolish 10.5 line I bet on last Sunday against the crippled 49ers, I still think Rivers smells blood in the west, especially with KC being a bit exposed by Denver’s defense in week 4.

NYG @ Carolina Panthers -6.5 1U – I’m trying to swallow my second guessing that Carolina doesn’t cover this line, especially because my logic here is the Giants suck, Carolina is coming off of a bye week and they’re at home. I still think some of my theory about disasters influencing sports holds some water, pardon the pun, so perhaps the waterlogged and devastated Carolina shows up rinsed of coal ash and pig shit to show Big Blue that Florence didn’t cow them from rooting on an increasingly irrelevant Cam Newton. I miss Greg Olsen.

Parlay:

DET +1

LAC -5

CAR -6.5

1U to win 5.8U.

Week 4 NFL Picks

NFL Record 5-7-2  -3U

Parlay Record 0-1

Jesus Christ what a shitty couple of weeks. Vikings pushed Thursday. Here’s this week’s picks, because I’m consistent and show my losses. Let’s hopefully dig out of this hole. Unit bets have been a little higher, thus why my losses seem a little minimized. Still up overall on my account if this week clears.

WEEK 4 NFL PICKS

Cleveland Browns @ OAK +3 1U – Fade the shitty 0-3 Raiders even at home, Baker Mayfield is rookie Jesus and will feed off the negative energy of the Black Hole.

KC @ Denver Broncos +5 1U – WHEN WILL I LEARN. Denver 0-2-1 ATS but I think this is a trap I’m navigating correctly. +5 at home is pretty good, and the KC defense is absolutely shit. This is the Monday Night Football game and I always like the Broncos in primetime. Homer fucking idiot.

SF @ Los Angeles Chargers +10.5 1U – Jimmy G likely out for a year and Rivers smells blood in the West at “home.” Probably should’ve bought the point.

Parlayed all three at 1U for a gain of 5.61U on the hit.

 

Week 3 NFL Picks

This is for posterity. I’ve been sour all week because betting +3 Jets against the Tyrod Taylor Browns didn’t pan out on TNF when Baker Mayfield had to come in just before halftime, demonstrating he is in fact The Truth. Fucked my whole parlay up. Last weekend sucked too.

NFL Record +1U

4-4-1

Parlay

0-1

WEEK 3 NFL Picks

PIT @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1U – Buccs at home getting a point with redhot journeyman Fitzy against a wounded Big Ben? Probably a trap but I’m taking it.

Green Bay Packers @ WASH -3 1U – It’s Green Bay. Rodgers has something to prove but is nursing a knee injury. I have Davonte Adams on my fantasy team. This made sense when I had a four-team parlay.

DAL @ Seattle Seahawks -1 1U – Can Seattle beat a completely floundering Cowboys by a point? Yes.

LATE EDIT: Denver Broncos @ BAL +6 3U – Hammering this even though the Broncos are 0-2 ATS. 6 points is ridiculous and Flacco has been struggling. Good luck to me.

Week 2 NFL Picks

NFL Season Record

3-1-1 +1U

My dumbass didn’t know how to stay away from the Thursday night game and I lost 2U on Baltimore at -1.5 against my better judgment. The Broncos pushed last weekend but otherwise everything else covered. That’s a lovely way to start the season! Need a book? Come on down and play with me at Bovada!

WEEK 2 NFL PICKS

LA Chargers @ BUF -7.5 2U – Bought this early in the week because Buffalo shit the bed so badly against Baltimore in the opener I didn’t think there’d be any way they’d be able to cover against a competitive Chargers team. Crybaby Phillip Rivers should stomp the shit out of the Bills, this is barely worth analyzing at a statistical level. It looks like the Bills are going to start Josh Allen, the first-rounder out of Wyoming, which should at least make for a more interesting game than the massacre last Sunday. Chargers cover, I’m guessing by 10.

OAK @ Denver Broncos -6 2U – Homer betting again. Oakland has no offensive weapons, collapsed in the 2nd half Sunday against the Rams, and Denver looks great against the run which should render an aging Marshawn Lynch totally irrelevant. I expect a steadier outing from Keenum, who I don’t blame at all for 2/3 interceptions in the opener against Seattle, and I expect Sanders to open up again and Phillip Lindsay to shred in front of the home crowd. The spread has gone up a half point on most books, but I still think that has a lot of value depending on the juice.

New England Patriots @ JAX -1.5 1.5U – I don’t know what planet we’re on. I stayed away from NE last weekend and they covered the spread by a half point, so I don’t regret that decision, however this line seems unreasonably low against a Jaguars team that struggled to contain the abysmal New York Giants last weekend. Bortles I think is starting out a little rattled being so focused on after last season, and although I don’t think it will be more than a 7 point game, I’m legitimately shocked that even a little neutered, a BB/Tom Brady Pats is this undervalued. Slam it.

MNF looks kind of sketchy, the Seahawks looked better than I thought in Denver but the Bears covered against the comeback Packers. If it stays at -3.5 through tomorrow I might jump on it, especially if the juice stays even for Chicago. I’m also hammering the Yankees against Toronto through this whole three-game series, at least 1U each. I’m running about even on MLB.

NFL Week 1 Picks

For the last couple of years, in addition to playing fantasy football for a little scratch among friends, I’ve thrown some money around betting spreads/futures on the NFL and gradually expanded to homer baseball wagers, the World Cup and a little on fights I’m interested in. During the 2018 NFL season on Saturdays (or Wednesday depending if I’m into the TNF game) I’ll be having a little Degenerate Gambler’s Column where I show you my picks and you can tail or fade at your own risk. If you’re not familiar with the unit betting concept, 1 unit (1U) is generally between 1-10% of your bankroll. If you want to bet but don’t have an online book, I can’t say enough nice things about Bovada and you get some nice bonuses if you use my referral code. Without further ado, here’s my picks for NFL Week 1, along with my logic behind them.

NFL Week 1 Picks

NFL Season Record: 0-0

Minnesota Vikings -6.5 1U – At home against the 49ers and I think Kirk Cousins has something to prove. The Vikings are a little banged up or else I think this line would be substantially higher. Even seeing Jimmy G go on a tear at the end of last year, I don’t see the weapons that can take on a formidable Minnesota. The Elo has this for the Vikings at -8, so I think a -6.5 is a bargain.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1U – A road favorite but playing in a house divided, JAX has arguably one of the best defenses in the league and should keep this pretty low scoring against the Giants. It’s going to be tight and competitive in regards to covering, but the Jaguar offense is being a little underestimated as an anemic unit and against a dysfunctional Giants team, I think this might be easier than how murky it looks.

Denver Broncos -3 1.5U – Kind of a homer bet, but an opener at Mile High is like getting balls off the table. Seattle is a straight up shell of itself, losing so much veteran talent in the offseason that I can’t believe the juice is as good as it is and that there’s been little-to-no line movement since I bought this last week. I wish I got it at -2.5, but I think the Donkeys are going to dominate.

Los Angeles Rams -4.5 1U – Fade the Gruden Raiders all day long, doesn’t matter if they’re at home. It’s a coach that hasn’t been in the league for fifteen years on a team with more internal strife and drama than probably any other team in the league. The Rams franchise turnaround since moving to LA is insane.

I’m staying away from the Pats until some of their injury problems work themselves out. Brady is sorely lacking targets against a Houston team with offensive and defensive assets that I think are going to trouble them with -6.5 points to cover. I also put 1U on Colorado +4 against Nebraska just for rivalry funsies, and with the weather apparently looking terrible for the Steelers v. Browns, it might be a little interesting to throw money on the under, although the books are already adjusting downwards from a o/u of 44 so it might be too late. Lots of tight lines opening week, and obvious stuff like Detroit -7 against the Jets or the Packers -7.5 against Chicago seems a little trappy to me. A virtual pick ’em in Miami, with the Titans -1 is something else I’m staying away from, despite some confidence Tennessee walks away with it handily.

Good luck!

AAron Ontiveroz, The Denver Post

Broncos Anger God, Invite Torrential Downpour After Blowing 13 Point Lead

There’s no real reason to get too worked up about losing an NFL preseason game in the fourth quarter with third-string players on the field. Being up 23-10 after three stings a bit, but the first and second squads had good showings early on, key players looked returned to form, and drives came together in a way that was both productive and satisfying to watch. Last week, an increasingly frustrating coaching staff marched into the opening game against the Minnesota Vikings with an… avant-garde game plan, in which the team was clearly experimenting and seeing what could stick to the wall. That’s fine for a preseason game, although I think most fans prefer something a little more structured and goal oriented. Against the Chicago Bears, a team that finished last in their division last year, the Broncos looked pretty lethal at times, with Von Miller on the field longer than most people would probably like and Emmanuel Sanders blossoming new chemistry with 2018’s hired gun QB Case Keenum.

Royce Freeman and CU alum Phillip Lindsay dominated the running game over Broncos veteran Devontae Booker, both clearly deserving spots on the final roster. Jeff Hue-Hue-Hue-Heuerman, a sorely underused tight-end weapon, looked like a bouncer at closing time, fighting for every bit of yardage he could get and scoring on a two-point conversion after a running TD from Freeman early on in the second quarter. First-round draft pick Bradley Chubb forced a safety after a bobbled snap, and Justin Simmons caught an interception to bring in “back up” Chad Kelly, quickly becoming a fan favorite in the preseason for his physicality and clear QB IQ. Everything was looking great. I think everyone knows it’s the Bears, but the Broncos played legitimately good football for basically three and a half quarters. This Kelly to Sutton touchdown near the two-minute warning right before halftime is an absolute thing of beauty:

After last week’s disastrous, downright depressing showing by first-round bust Paxton Lynch, most fans, including myself, were calling for him to be cut from the team or traded to another franchise dumb enough to take a chance on him. Lynch was booed as he took the field and again periodically as he threw 5/11 for 39 yards, most of which were YAC against a third-string defense from one of the worst-performing teams in the league. He’s abysmal, yet had the audacity in the post-game presser to claim that he “wants to be THE quarterback, not the backup.” If anything, tonight cemented my claims last week that Lynch doesn’t even belong in the NFL, much less warming the bench in Denver. Local sporting press is starting to feel bad for him, despite urging the team to “make a move”, and head coach Vance Joseph, traditionally a little bit cagey regarding questions about Lynch, seemed particularly unleashed when commenting on him getting booed at Mile High. Again. Even ex-Bronco RB CJ Anderson admonished fans for booing:

A lot is being made about the Isiah McKenzie fumble, and although I think he’s tested quite a bit of patience after earning a reputation for dropping punt returns last year, that was a bang-bang great defensive play from the Bears and McKenzie did what he could. I really hope his confidence isn’t shaken, because he’s shown a lot of progress from last year and I believe he’s earned a spot on the roster without a question. He looked dejected on the sidelines after that play, in which he was fighting for extra yardage with defenders on his ankles before having the ball punched out of his grasp. There’s no shame there, he’s out to prove himself.

e09a96812355e8c600e7a902a0df56fb

Local deity, pictured after a Broncos loss.

I was fortunate enough to be commuting into work shortly after the game when the Denver metro area finally let open the monsoon it had been brewing since the late afternoon. Luckily, the lightening that had been persistent for much of the game didn’t delay anything. I’ve been out of town for several of the summer storms, which I’ve cherished in the nearly 15 years I’ve spent here, and this was definitely the hardest, most sustained rain I’d seen all year without any added hail. After a 24-23 loss in the final two minutes, I’m assuming the Gods were absolutely furious at another week of Paxton Lynch provoking an entire region of the United States into more wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Next game: Friday 8/24 at 5:30pm MST @ Washington.

 

Paxton Lynch Sucks

Bronco’s football returned tonight with a preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings and after another lackluster training camp showing and another abysmal preseason game going into his third year, it’s time for John Elway to swallow his pride and cut Paxton Lynch. This evening, he went 6/11 for 24 yards with an interception and was sacked, then completely shown up by Chad Kelly, literally a Last Chance U alumni who spent last year sidelined with a wrist injury and had never played a game in the NFL. With concerns about Case Keenum being injury prone, the back-up job clearly needs to go to a player that doesn’t have the football IQ equivalent of a student repeating the fourth grade twice.

Look at this shit:

He’s 6’8″ and screen passes are swatted down at the line of scrimmage. This is a guy that lost depth chart positioning to Brock Osweiler, a man paid by the Cleveland Browns to not play and Trevor “Skittles” Siemian. The fact that he’s on an NFL roster is astonishing. Zero development or improvement in three years, but John Elway refuses to admit his first-round pick is a bust, which has cost the Broncos two serviceable second-string quarterbacks going to Minnesota. At least Brock, now playing in Miami, had passion for the organization and town. Paxton should be working as a mascot in Tampa Bay or doing Captain Morgan promotional appearances on frat rows. He’s a dullard.

I’m very forgiving. I didn’t mind seeing Trevor start again last year despite his ongoing issues. He had heart and came back from big hits as best he could. The team seemed to get behind him until obvious frustrations from a diminished but still legendary defense became insurmountable. Paxton, which is the male naming equivalent of Makayla, is lazy, listless, and obviously yippy anytime he’s put into a pre-planned QB1 situation.

There’s a question of “dead money” for next year if Elway can fall out of love with this towering mutant pirate, do the right thing, and get rid of him. It might cost a seventh-round pick down the line to sweeten the garbage pot, $600k in cap space this year, and $1.3 million next year, but after watching him booed off the field in Mile High tonight what are the other options? He’s dead weight. Even the most optimistic homer fans waiting for a development breakthrough or hoping for him to stop getting Vietnam flashbacks every time the sub-par defensive line collapses his pocket are reaching the end of their ropes.

It’s been enough chances and without a move by the coaching staff or front office, it’s only a matter of time before people start saying the same thing about Vance Joseph or even John Elway, who just two years ago could’ve gotten Denver International Airport named after him. At a certain point, it’s undeniably an organizational problem.